I thought it might help me improve as a DFS players to occasionally put my thinking down in blog form.  With my business, I don’t have time to play the classic version on DK, as I don’t have the opportunity to respond to news.  The tiers don’t seem to require quite the same attention as the player pool is smaller, and most of the value plays on the classic slate aren’t in the player pool.  

As of this morning I have played 15 slates for a total of $300 in entrance fees and have made $331.40.  That is a profit so $31.40 and an ROI of roughly 10.4%.  

Keep in mind, to hit the nuts in the tiers slate you need to pick the top scorer in each tier.  Points matter, but it’s more important to have the top scorer in the tier, even if he doesn’t score lots of points.  

Tier 1 – George 80% / Curry 20%:  With Westbrook out it was only George and Curry.  I thought George without Westbrook was the best play as his usage increases without Westbrook on the floor, and he’s shown to be matchup proof for the most part.  I almost locked in George, but wanted to hedge a little.  George out scored Curry by 2 points.  The scores were close enough that Curry lineups could still cash, but my 16 George lineups were still live to hit the nuts.  

Tier 2 – Booker 60% / Doncic 20% / Lillard 20%:  This tier killed my night.  Booker finished last in the tier, and was over 20 points behind the tier leader.  This result killed 12 of my lineups.  Was it a poor selection or just poor results.  Booker played 40 minutes against a poor defensive team (Chicago) and took 24 shots.  Truthfully if I had known he was getting 40 minutes and was going to take that many shots, I would have been happy playing him.  He also had 8 rebounds and 7 assists, so he wasn’t far from the double-double, or even triple-double bonus.  Despite the results I don’t think it was a bad play.  It just didn’t work out.  The silver lining in this tier was Doncic and Lillard who finished 1st and 2nd in the tier.  Doncic was low owned (7%) I assume due to injury concern.  I almost pivoted to Kyrie at 7:30, but figured I could pivot to Booker or Lillard if Doncic was ruled out.  It worked out.  Lillard finished right behind Doncic in points, so I still had 8 live lineups, including 4 with both Doncic and George.  The nuts was still possible.  

Tier 3 – Payton 60% / LMA 20% / Klay Thompson 20%:  Payton needed overtime to get there, but he ended up being the top scorer of the tier.  LMA was less then 4 points behind him (with Randle in between).  Klay was over 20 points behind.  Any Klay lineups were drawing dead, but the other 80% of my lineups were still live, assuming they didn’t have Booker.  I did have 4 lineups with George, Doncic, and Payton.  Payton had been playing so well it was difficult to get away from him.  He had 4 Triple-doubles in a row, so there were numerous ways for him to do well.  

Tier 4 – Siakam 60% / Nurkic 20% / Levine 20%:  The quest for the nuts ended on this tier as Derozen outscored everyone else by at least 11 points.  Derozen was 20% owned in the tournament so it was a difficult task to make up that ground against those lineups.  I liked Siakam with Kawhi, Lowry, and Ibaka out as his usage would be much higher and I hoped the game would stay close.  Then Lowry was ruled in.  I still liked Siakam, but looking back perhaps I should have pivoted off him.  At that time I was at work with a client, so it would have had to been a global swap.  I decided to keep what I had.  If I was at home in front of my computer I might have adjusted, but that wasn’t a possibility yesterday.  As I continue to play and learn I will get better at adjusting these lineups on the fly.  

Tier 5 – Ayton 60% / Millsap 40%:  Ayton went off and crushed the tier, winning by 10 points.  I originally considered playing a higher percentage of Ayton due to the matchup and injury situation.  Without Johnson, Warren, or Oubre, he was likely going to see an increase in usage, and Chicago is not strong vs big men.  Looking back I wish I had played Ayton more.  

Tier 6 – Gasol 60% / Murray 20% / Collison 20%:  Robin Lopez ended up winning the tier, which isn’t a surprise considering how poor PHX is vs big men.  I’m not sure why I didn’t consider him.  That is something I will have to reflect on, as I think I have some player biases that is causing me to make sub-optimal choices.  Gasol did fine, finishing 2nd in the tier, 4.5 points behind Lopez.  Murray and Collison both did poorly and pretty much killed those lineups.  I thought Gasol was a relatively safe play, and liked the upside with Murray.  Looking back I should have considered Lopez over a Collison, but it’s easy to look back and say what one should have done.  

Overall I had I significant exposure to the top plays in 3 of the tiers (George, Payton, and Ayton), with a little exposure to another top performer (Doncic).  Having 60% Booker in tier 2 and lacking exposure to Derozen are the two primary factors in my unprofitable evening.  Overall I cashed in 5 of 20 lineups, which is below my average of 7-8 lineups out of 20.  I may try a few slates with a smaller player pool.  I want to maximize my chances of hitting the nuts, when I’m able to pick most of the tiers correctly.  Thanks for reading, and feel free to send me any comments or questions.